5297 Aero Dr
Santa Rosa, CA 95403
The Rodgers Creek Fault is a potentially right-lateral strike-slip fault. The creep rate along the fault is not well characterized, but the fault may be mostly locked with up to 6 mm/yr of creep in places along the northern half of the fault. The total slip rate on the Rodgers Creek Fault is about 9 mm/yr (0.35 inches/yr).
The two most recent moderate sized (M5.6 and 5.7) earthquakes on the Rodgers Creek Fault struck near Santa Rosa in October 1969. An 1893 earthquake near Santa Rosa and an 1898 earthquake near Mare Island are thought to have occurred along or near the Rodgers Creek Fault.
The most recent large, surface rupturing Rodgers Creek Fault occurred between AD 1690 and 1824 (and probably between AD 1715 and 1776). The elapsed time from the last large, surface rupturing earthquake is thus at least 183 years and more likely at least 231 years. The 2003 Working Group for California Earthquake Probability estimated the recurrence interval between large earthquakes on this fault as between 200 and 300 years.
The Rodgers Creek and Hayward Faults are parallel faults that overlap each other in San Pablo Bay, where they are separated by a distance of about 5 km (3 miles). Given the distance between these parallel faults, the 2003 Working Group for California Earthquake Probability considered scenarios in which both the Rodgers Creek and Hayward Faults ruptured in the same earthquake, most likely due to an epicenter beneath San Pablo Bay.
The 2003 Working Group for California Earthquake Probability assigned a 27% probability that the Hayward-Rodgers Creek Fault system would produce a magnitude 6.7 or larger earthquake in the next 30 years.